![]() ![]() Hubbert's peak was thought to have been achieved in the United States contiguous 48 states (that is, excluding Alaska and Hawaii) in the early 1970s. "Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume. The theory is named after American geophysicist M. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years. The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.Ĭhoosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Union For the episode of The West Wing television series, see The Hubbert Peak.
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